Keeper Crazy

My keeper league standings are simply out of control. In the last few days I've been in second place with a deficit as large as six points, in first place by as many as two points, and every where in between. It seems that every single play in every single game somehow affects the standings. There are more than seven weeks left in the season which means I am going to develop an ulcer by the time all is said and done.

Let's take the Wins category for instance. Ten of the thirteen teams in the league have between 74 and 70 Wins. Think about that. It is insane. There are up to fifteen games played everyday in baseball, which means up to fifteen pitchers earn a Win, which means up to fifteen Wins are distributed within this fantasy league each day. I just can't take it. And because the category is so cluttered, one Win for me or the other team I'm battling with (Majestic) means multi-point swings. Let's take yesterday for example - we entered the day with Majestic in first with 108.5 points and me in 2nd place at 108 points. He had Francisco Liriano pitching while I had CC Sabathia and Ricky Nolasco going. All three pitchers got wins. I am now in first with 110.5 points while Majestic is now in 2nd at 108.5. Madness like I've never seen it.

So what's my strategy here? I'm glad you asked, because it's ill. There's a few things to consider. First is the innings pitched limit. We have a 1,450 limit on the year. I'm at 1,055 while Majestic's at 1,094. This is huge as 40 extra innings for me can mean a few Wins. I'm hoping Majestic hits their limit with a week or two to go, which will freeze all of their pitching stats for the remainder of the season, and then I'll have a concrete idea of where I stand and I'll be able to start all of my pitchers to get what I need.

BUT - then I have my ratios to worry about. If I go strictly for the Wins points I can damage my ERA/WHIP in the process and wipe out any progress I make. The optimal solution is to get Wins while improving my ratios, but that never seems to work out for me. Classic example is what I'm facing tonight. I have Hiroki Kuroda @ Atlanta and James Shields vs. Baltimore. Both seemingly solid matchups. Do I start them and hope for Wins while risking blowups which can lose me progress in the ratio departments? Do I risk sitting them and missing out on good stats? Like I said, ulcer time. I'm leaning towards sitting them but that will change about eighteen times between now and first pitch.

The last thing I need to address is the emergence of a legitimate third title contender, the Scratchers. They made some power moves at the deadline and can make a real run at this thing. Currently they're sitting at 101.5 points and there are some points to gain sitting out there for them if they finish strong. After that its a 25 point dropoff to fourth place. So its the Trinity Killers, Majestic, and the Scratchers all within nine points of each other with seven weeks to go. You know the drill.

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