After writing yesterday about the possibility of acquiring Roy Halladay, Paul Konerko, and Vernon Wells for Ricky Nolasco, Max Scherzer, Scott Baker, Jason Kubel, and Brad Hawpe I have learned that the other team may not be too interested. This really surprises me because there are now only 3 teams that will be buyers at the trading deadline and the other two have no need for pitching at all - unless they're just trying to play keep away from me. I did not get a flat out 'no', but more of a 'let us explore the market'. I took this as a 'no' though and am not going to sit on my hands.
No more than a few hours later, team NONY sent out an 'On The Block Update' saying that they're looking to move their expiring contracts for good keepers for 2011 and beyond. This is an old friend of mine, so I emailed him and was just straight with him. I told him my 'next year' assets are looking grim, but I'd be willing to clear out the cupboard for him. So I offered:
Scott Baker ($6, 2011), Max Scherzer ($11, MR), Kris Medlen ($1, MR), Gio Gonzalez ($1, MR), and David Freese (ML). The 'MR' means he would have matching rights on these players at next year's auction - meaning whatever the final bid is for these players he could just say the word 'match' and they'll be on his team. The 'ML' means I drafted him to my minor league roster and at the beginning of the year his owner has the option to either drop him or assign him one of four contracts: one year at $2, two years at $5, three years at $10, or four years at $16. Freese is very solid, if I wind up holding onto him I can see using him as my cornerman for $2.
More important is my friend's response, and it was the dreaded 'let me talk to my parter'. But he did give me the heads up that it might not be enough. But, again, at the risk of sounding redundant, with so few buyers in the market, and his expiring contracts being completely worthless to him, this tips the scales in my favor. We shall see.
In a miserable turn of events, the 2nd place team, Majestic, has been on an insane run the past few days and has surpassed me as the league leader. I had been in first place for awhile now, maybe 6 weeks straight. He is scorching hot though and only has a point on me so its obviously far from over. The good thing is I've been consistently good, always in the 108-111 range and I am still there. If I just stay there and Majestic finally cools off then I'll feel a lot better about this. Or if one of these 2 trades comes through, that would be big time as well.
On another note - my other team is fading hard. I owe you a post on them but it just hurts too much to write. Since my 'big' trade last week I've gotten even worse. I'll work up the nerve to write it and post it later today or tomorrow. But needless to say, when I think of that team my mind drifts to football.
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Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Tuesday, July 27, 2010
Potential Trade
In my keeper league, the Trinity Killers are clinging to anywhere from a two to 9 point lead, depending on the day. The frustrating part is that I don't fluctuate more than two points, from 108 to 110 - which is really good, good enough to win any of the past three years of the league's existence. The problem is that the 2nd place team, Majestic, is really surging (thanks to a trade for Albert Pujols) and has gotten up to as high as 109.5 and definitely has some points out there to pick up. This is a legitimate race and I cannot afford to blow another lead like I did last year.
So the logical step is to make a deal where I can trade off good keeper contracts in exchange for expiring contracts. The talent does not need to match up as 10 of the 13 teams are out of the running and this happens every year, they're called 'dump deals', where the bad teams dump their good players in exchange for good keepers as they're not playing for 2011 and beyond. I made an interesting offer yesterday that would help me immensely: I offered a $17 Ricky Nolasco (expiring), $7 Brad Hawpe (expiring), ( $11 Max Scherzer - free agent pickup so I can match the winning bid on him at next year's auction), $6 Scott Baker (signed through 2012) and $2 Jason Kubel (signed through 2011) for a $30 Roy Halladay, $6 Vernon Wells and $4 Paul Konerko.
The star of this deal for me is Halladay as I could use 80+ innings of guaranteed quality production. I'm giving up a lot here - for both this year and the future. On his best day Nolasco is a top pitcher, but he's been pretty inconsistent. Ditto Scherzer. Baker is the most inconsistent pitcher around and I've resorted to spot-starting him which is always a deadly game and I get that one wrong more times than right. Kubel at $2 is one of the better contracts around, he is so good and a legit .280/30/100 guy, amazing bang for your buck. Hawpe is dead weight. So on the offensive side, not that I REALLY need it, its a win for me. Vernon and Konerko are still doing their thang and would probably lock up the home run/rbi categories for me. And as good as Nolasco, Scherzer, and Baker can be on any given day, consolidating them into one Doc Halladay is a no brainer - he's the best in baseball in my opinion and would be huge for me.
I'm also facing an innings cap that I am currently ahead of pace for. If we go over 1,450 innings pitched on the year our pitching stats freeze, so I need to be aware of that. If I traded three pitchers who I currently use, to some extent at least, for one then that would solve my problem right there. My rotation would then look like Doc, CC Sabathia, Dan Haren (sick top three), James Shields and Kris Medlen. I would also fill my empty roster spots with middle relief pitchers with sparkling ERA/WHIPs and high K rates. This is my last chance to really gain some points - the place to do it is ERA/WHIP and the longer I wait to make a move the less time I have, and the more innings pitched I have amassed the harder it is to lower those ratio categories. I have officially made the offer, lets see if the other guy bites. He is done for this year so on one hand would be wise to get two good contracts plus matching rights for a third all for guys who are coming off their books. On the other hand they would we wise to shop these guys to the other two contenders and see if they can get an offer that would top mine. The good news for me is that the other two contenders are first and second in ERA/WHIP as well as competitive in the other pitching categories. They could still go after Wells and Konerko, who are ancillary targets for me, but I have a feeling Doc will be mine at the end of the day. The trade deadline is August 7th, so this needs to come together rather quickly, but I have faith. Once this move goes through I'll feel pretty good about protecting my lead for the last two months of the year. Lets bring home the trophy!!!
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So the logical step is to make a deal where I can trade off good keeper contracts in exchange for expiring contracts. The talent does not need to match up as 10 of the 13 teams are out of the running and this happens every year, they're called 'dump deals', where the bad teams dump their good players in exchange for good keepers as they're not playing for 2011 and beyond. I made an interesting offer yesterday that would help me immensely: I offered a $17 Ricky Nolasco (expiring), $7 Brad Hawpe (expiring), ( $11 Max Scherzer - free agent pickup so I can match the winning bid on him at next year's auction), $6 Scott Baker (signed through 2012) and $2 Jason Kubel (signed through 2011) for a $30 Roy Halladay, $6 Vernon Wells and $4 Paul Konerko.
The star of this deal for me is Halladay as I could use 80+ innings of guaranteed quality production. I'm giving up a lot here - for both this year and the future. On his best day Nolasco is a top pitcher, but he's been pretty inconsistent. Ditto Scherzer. Baker is the most inconsistent pitcher around and I've resorted to spot-starting him which is always a deadly game and I get that one wrong more times than right. Kubel at $2 is one of the better contracts around, he is so good and a legit .280/30/100 guy, amazing bang for your buck. Hawpe is dead weight. So on the offensive side, not that I REALLY need it, its a win for me. Vernon and Konerko are still doing their thang and would probably lock up the home run/rbi categories for me. And as good as Nolasco, Scherzer, and Baker can be on any given day, consolidating them into one Doc Halladay is a no brainer - he's the best in baseball in my opinion and would be huge for me.
I'm also facing an innings cap that I am currently ahead of pace for. If we go over 1,450 innings pitched on the year our pitching stats freeze, so I need to be aware of that. If I traded three pitchers who I currently use, to some extent at least, for one then that would solve my problem right there. My rotation would then look like Doc, CC Sabathia, Dan Haren (sick top three), James Shields and Kris Medlen. I would also fill my empty roster spots with middle relief pitchers with sparkling ERA/WHIPs and high K rates. This is my last chance to really gain some points - the place to do it is ERA/WHIP and the longer I wait to make a move the less time I have, and the more innings pitched I have amassed the harder it is to lower those ratio categories. I have officially made the offer, lets see if the other guy bites. He is done for this year so on one hand would be wise to get two good contracts plus matching rights for a third all for guys who are coming off their books. On the other hand they would we wise to shop these guys to the other two contenders and see if they can get an offer that would top mine. The good news for me is that the other two contenders are first and second in ERA/WHIP as well as competitive in the other pitching categories. They could still go after Wells and Konerko, who are ancillary targets for me, but I have a feeling Doc will be mine at the end of the day. The trade deadline is August 7th, so this needs to come together rather quickly, but I have faith. Once this move goes through I'll feel pretty good about protecting my lead for the last two months of the year. Lets bring home the trophy!!!
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Tuesday, July 20, 2010
I Have a Trade To Announce
I have a trade to announce. Cool HWIP (me) sends the rights to First Baseman Kevin Youkilis of the Boston Red Sox to Night Moves (shout out Bloomington, IN) for Starting Pitcher Yovani Gallardo of the Milwaukee Brewers and Third Baseman from the Cincinnati Reds Scott Rolen.
Reasoning: I need pitching and I need pitching bad. I’m currently sitting in fifth place with the best offense in the league and the worst pitching. I need an ACE who is capable of putting the team on his back and having a monster second half. Unfortunately, I have tried so many different avenues, trying to deal from strength (runs and steals) to get a potential ACE, not even an established guy, but to no avail. So, here we are. Gallardo was an absolute beast in the first half. 2.58 ERA. 122 strikeouts in less than 122 innings. But….cmon, you knew there was a ‘but’ coming….he is currently on the disabled list with an oblique injury. He is reportedly feeling great, good to go, and set to pitch Thursday night at Pittsburgh. Normally I would never take such a risk. This guy could be toast and I would be totally screwed, but I really had no choice. If I have any shot at making a run in the second half I need monster pitching efforts from more than one guy. I think Cole Hamels is capable. I think Brett Anderson, once he himself comes off the DL, is more than capable. I also have high hopes for Scott Baker who has established himself as a second half guy over the last few years. But I needed a no doubt about it if healthy anchor to get me points in bunches and that’s what Gallardo is. I am currently in last place in Wins and ERA. I’m in 12th place in WHIP and just middle of the pack in strikeouts. In other words, if these guys do what I hope they can do then there are 20 more pitching points for me to make up. I just need a big time second half. It’s possible. Not likely, but possible. And that’s why I did the deal, I needed to take a chance. Had no choice. I am a patient fantasy owner. Probably to a fault. I gave my staff fifteen weeks to prove their worth and they disappointed me. They failed me. So enter Yovani Gallardo, strikeout beast when healthy. Please be healthy, Yovani, please be healthy.
Of course, there are other guys in the deal. So I also got back Scott Rolen in the deal. This is a guy who went undrafted in most leagues because he can’t stay healthy, he’s old, and he’s well past his prime. Not an ideal combination. But he hooked himself up to the juvenation machine this year and clocked seventeen bombs in the first half with 50+ RBI. On paper, he’s near Youkilis’ equal. But we all know better, Rolen will regress to the mean and I’m hoping for a mediocre 2nd half. Actually, praying for it. Of course, right after I made the deal it came out that he got a cortisone shot in his right hamstring today and there’s a good chance he goes on the DL this week. Awesome. Nothing like buying damaged goods. Makes me sick. But if he just needs the minimum stint on the DL to get right, I’d rather have him healthy out there than struggling with a nagging injury. If he can come back in two weeks and hit me ten bombs the rest of the way I’ll be more than happy.
Which brings me to Youkilis. Youuuuuuuuuuuuuuk. God I’m gonna miss this guy. He is a model of consistency and reliability which are two things I value above all else in fantasy baseball. One reason I decided to trade Youk was that a ton of his value came from Runs. He leads the majors in them just as I lead my fantasy league in them. And I lead my league by a lot of Runs, like fifty. So while I value everything else Youk brings to the table I’m okay losing the Runs he brings to the table. And before Rolen’s injury I was hoping he can get me about 75% of Youk’s power the rest of the way (not that farfetched considering he went homer for homer for him so far to date). It was just a business decision. The difference between Youk and Rolen was more than made up for by Gallardo. Now he just needs to go out there and throw me a few 7 inning, one earned run, 9 strikeout games and I’ll happy.
I’ll write a few posts specifically about how this trade affected the standings, but it’ll need a few weeks to kick in. More to come…
Thursday, July 15, 2010
ASB Update
This all star break update for Cool HWIP is a tough one to write as the team is struggling. Kinda. I have the best offense in the league with 70 points. Unfortunately I also have the worst pitching in the league with only 20 points. So here I sit in 5th place, 33 points out of first place. It could be worse, and the good news is that if I can make a pitching run there are a ton of points for me to gain. How can I do that? Few options. Try and be patient, I still have my opening day staff in tact for the most part - sans Brett Anderson who's been awesome while healthy but only has a few starts under his belt so far, and he's due back off the DL in 2 weeks - I still think guys like Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey and Ian Kennedy can have monster 2nd halves and help me fly up the standings.
Since I have such a good offense, I can trade from strength and improve my pitching while trading away hitting. I currently have a 30+ lead in Runs and a 15 lead in steals. My goal is to pair Denard Span with a pitcher not named Cole Hamels or Anderson, and flip that package for a good, tier 2 pitcher. I offered that package for Francisco Liriano today. Unfortunately nobody seems to interested in Span even though he is so solid all around.
Even with my monster offensive totals, I'm still actually relatively week in Home Runs and RBI's, thanks to 2 DL stints from Nelson Cruz and Aramis Ramirez choosing to have his worst season since little league this year. So I've also tried flipping Runs + Steals for power, but that's been shot down too. Based on all of my trading efforts I have a feeling I'm stuck with my current roster outside of any free agent breakouts I might find.
I also have Edinson Volquez chillin' on my DL. He's due back on Sunday after missing the last year + from Tommy John Surgery. If he can catch the magic from his rookie season and give me 75 solid innings with a 3.5 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 70 K's, that would go a loooong way in helping me get back on track.
So as of now, my 2nd half rotation will look like:
Cole Hamels
Brett Anderson
Jason Hammel
Scott Baker
Edinson Volquez
I like that staff and if we were starting from scratch right now I'd love to go to war with this crew. I just don't have the confidence that these guys can put together a 450 inning run of monster stats that can gain me 20+ pitching points in the 2nd half. That's why I'd love to trade for an almost elite guy. If Hamels has a better 2nd half, Anderson stays healthy, and I add a Liriano type? Watch out, that could be magical - all while keeping my offense intact.
One other thing to keep an eye on is the first place team, Chin Music. They've been comfortably in first place for pretty much the entire season, totally replicating the season I had last year in this league. Right now they sit at 123 points. My league record of 128.5 is in jeopardy. I thought I'd hold that mantle for at least a few years. The good news is that Chin Music is starting to show some cracks in the armor and what was once a consistent 25-30 point lead is down to seven. But, in true Single White Female fashion, last year right before the ASB I hit a little slump, dropped down to 123.5 and had just a 7.5 point lead. Right after the ASB I blew the heck up and absolutely cruised the rest of the way. Once I got back over a 20 point lead I never looked back. It was really tough though and I got super lucky on the injury front - for that to happen to two teams two years in a row would be unheard of. I really hope he fails and I'm the team that takes advantage.
Sorry for the lack of updates on this team but it makes me nauseous to discuss a team of mine when I'm struggling. If I don't improve soon I'll look to get an early jump on football season. That's right, football is right around the corner! HELLOOOOOOOOOOO....
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Since I have such a good offense, I can trade from strength and improve my pitching while trading away hitting. I currently have a 30+ lead in Runs and a 15 lead in steals. My goal is to pair Denard Span with a pitcher not named Cole Hamels or Anderson, and flip that package for a good, tier 2 pitcher. I offered that package for Francisco Liriano today. Unfortunately nobody seems to interested in Span even though he is so solid all around.
Even with my monster offensive totals, I'm still actually relatively week in Home Runs and RBI's, thanks to 2 DL stints from Nelson Cruz and Aramis Ramirez choosing to have his worst season since little league this year. So I've also tried flipping Runs + Steals for power, but that's been shot down too. Based on all of my trading efforts I have a feeling I'm stuck with my current roster outside of any free agent breakouts I might find.
I also have Edinson Volquez chillin' on my DL. He's due back on Sunday after missing the last year + from Tommy John Surgery. If he can catch the magic from his rookie season and give me 75 solid innings with a 3.5 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 70 K's, that would go a loooong way in helping me get back on track.
So as of now, my 2nd half rotation will look like:
Cole Hamels
Brett Anderson
Jason Hammel
Scott Baker
Edinson Volquez
I like that staff and if we were starting from scratch right now I'd love to go to war with this crew. I just don't have the confidence that these guys can put together a 450 inning run of monster stats that can gain me 20+ pitching points in the 2nd half. That's why I'd love to trade for an almost elite guy. If Hamels has a better 2nd half, Anderson stays healthy, and I add a Liriano type? Watch out, that could be magical - all while keeping my offense intact.
One other thing to keep an eye on is the first place team, Chin Music. They've been comfortably in first place for pretty much the entire season, totally replicating the season I had last year in this league. Right now they sit at 123 points. My league record of 128.5 is in jeopardy. I thought I'd hold that mantle for at least a few years. The good news is that Chin Music is starting to show some cracks in the armor and what was once a consistent 25-30 point lead is down to seven. But, in true Single White Female fashion, last year right before the ASB I hit a little slump, dropped down to 123.5 and had just a 7.5 point lead. Right after the ASB I blew the heck up and absolutely cruised the rest of the way. Once I got back over a 20 point lead I never looked back. It was really tough though and I got super lucky on the injury front - for that to happen to two teams two years in a row would be unheard of. I really hope he fails and I'm the team that takes advantage.
Sorry for the lack of updates on this team but it makes me nauseous to discuss a team of mine when I'm struggling. If I don't improve soon I'll look to get an early jump on football season. That's right, football is right around the corner! HELLOOOOOOOOOOO....
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Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Update Time
I'd like to take some time away from the annoying Lebron coverage to update you guys on my keeper league team's season. So far, so good. As of today I am in first place with 107 points, while 2nd place sits at 98 points, 3rd place at 90 points, and 4th at 89 points. These are looking like the four contending teams. 5th place is at 83 points and I have inside information that he is going to start trading his expiring contracts for some cap-friendly youngsters.
As much as I like my team, as much as I like a nine point lead, and as much as I like where I'm situated in each category, I cannot get complacent as last year still gives me nightmares. Around this time last year I was cruising with 115 points and about a 20 point lead. In early August my pitching absolutely collapsed and I blew the lead, finishing in 2nd place just two points out of first. That kills me every time I think about it. So, I cannot be comfortable with where I'm at right now. As I see it, there are still about 13 points I can legitimately gain, mostly on the pitching side.
Batting Avg: 2nd place/12 points. Hitting .277 as a team. First place is at .279. I count this as one point I can gain.
Home Runs: 1st place/13 points. I have an 8 homer lead over 2nd place and I like my chances to keep this lead as I have legit power producers throughout my roster and I'm still waiting for Carlos Pena's monster outburst (I think he still has 20+ homers coming in the 2nd half).
Runs: 4th/10. 2 runs behind 3rd place and 7 behind 2nd. I count this as 2 points I can pick up rather easily, all it takes is one of those 10 run nights and I'm in business (I'm 19 runs outta first fwiw).
RBI: 2nd/12. 8 behind the leader. I was leading by 8 less than a week ago as the leader and I have been flip flopping here all season. This is another point I believe I'll pick up.
Steals: 2nd/12. 3 behind the leader. Rajai Davis losing his full time gig hurt me big time as he was stealing a bag almost every night it seemed. I still have a bunch of well rounded players who can get me steals in bunches on any given night as well as speed ace Scott Podsednik who already has 24 swipes on the year. Another point I can realistically gain.
So that is 59 hitting points, most in the league by 7 and I think there are 5 points to be had here for me. Now onto the pitching:
ERA: 11th/3. I just don't get it. My staff is so good on paper and has been hot as hell lately, but I just can't seem to gain any ERA steam. I believe it'll happen though. CC is gonna do his second half thang as is Ricky Nolasco. I also fully believe Dan Haren will turn it around and have a bizarro Haren season (bad 1st half/sick 2nd). Then if Max Scherzer and Kris Medlen keep doing what they do and James Shields can get just a little bit better, I can make a big run here. Right now my team ERA stands at 3.901. 5th place is at 3.728. That's 6 juicy points just waiting for me in one category - that's so big time.
K's: 1st/13. Huge lead. Only way I'll lose it is if injuries hit me or if I come close to the innings pitched limit and I have to start benching guys in September. As of now though, loving the strikeouts.
Saves: 1st/13. 5 save lead. Billy Wagner and Rafael Soriano are so big time and are my Closer anchors. I also have Octavio Dotel chipping in and helping out, but all indications are that he'll get traded before the deadline and that will hurt me. However, I'll always be able to find saves via trade or free agency so this doesn't worry me too much at all.
Wins: 4th/10. Only 2 Wins outta first though. That's 3 quick points I can pick up with a little luck. Call me optimistic but I'm banking on that happening.
WHIP: 5th/9. I'm at 1.2558, very close to 4th place and within spitting distance of 3rd place. I'm confident I can gain two points here since I still think my staff goes on a nice 2nd half run.
So that's 48 pitching points, 3rd most in the league and by my count there are a solid 9 points sitting on the table waiting for me grab.
More updates to come....
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As much as I like my team, as much as I like a nine point lead, and as much as I like where I'm situated in each category, I cannot get complacent as last year still gives me nightmares. Around this time last year I was cruising with 115 points and about a 20 point lead. In early August my pitching absolutely collapsed and I blew the lead, finishing in 2nd place just two points out of first. That kills me every time I think about it. So, I cannot be comfortable with where I'm at right now. As I see it, there are still about 13 points I can legitimately gain, mostly on the pitching side.
Batting Avg: 2nd place/12 points. Hitting .277 as a team. First place is at .279. I count this as one point I can gain.
Home Runs: 1st place/13 points. I have an 8 homer lead over 2nd place and I like my chances to keep this lead as I have legit power producers throughout my roster and I'm still waiting for Carlos Pena's monster outburst (I think he still has 20+ homers coming in the 2nd half).
Runs: 4th/10. 2 runs behind 3rd place and 7 behind 2nd. I count this as 2 points I can pick up rather easily, all it takes is one of those 10 run nights and I'm in business (I'm 19 runs outta first fwiw).
RBI: 2nd/12. 8 behind the leader. I was leading by 8 less than a week ago as the leader and I have been flip flopping here all season. This is another point I believe I'll pick up.
Steals: 2nd/12. 3 behind the leader. Rajai Davis losing his full time gig hurt me big time as he was stealing a bag almost every night it seemed. I still have a bunch of well rounded players who can get me steals in bunches on any given night as well as speed ace Scott Podsednik who already has 24 swipes on the year. Another point I can realistically gain.
So that is 59 hitting points, most in the league by 7 and I think there are 5 points to be had here for me. Now onto the pitching:
ERA: 11th/3. I just don't get it. My staff is so good on paper and has been hot as hell lately, but I just can't seem to gain any ERA steam. I believe it'll happen though. CC is gonna do his second half thang as is Ricky Nolasco. I also fully believe Dan Haren will turn it around and have a bizarro Haren season (bad 1st half/sick 2nd). Then if Max Scherzer and Kris Medlen keep doing what they do and James Shields can get just a little bit better, I can make a big run here. Right now my team ERA stands at 3.901. 5th place is at 3.728. That's 6 juicy points just waiting for me in one category - that's so big time.
K's: 1st/13. Huge lead. Only way I'll lose it is if injuries hit me or if I come close to the innings pitched limit and I have to start benching guys in September. As of now though, loving the strikeouts.
Saves: 1st/13. 5 save lead. Billy Wagner and Rafael Soriano are so big time and are my Closer anchors. I also have Octavio Dotel chipping in and helping out, but all indications are that he'll get traded before the deadline and that will hurt me. However, I'll always be able to find saves via trade or free agency so this doesn't worry me too much at all.
Wins: 4th/10. Only 2 Wins outta first though. That's 3 quick points I can pick up with a little luck. Call me optimistic but I'm banking on that happening.
WHIP: 5th/9. I'm at 1.2558, very close to 4th place and within spitting distance of 3rd place. I'm confident I can gain two points here since I still think my staff goes on a nice 2nd half run.
So that's 48 pitching points, 3rd most in the league and by my count there are a solid 9 points sitting on the table waiting for me grab.
More updates to come....
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