Monday, April 19, 2010

Checking In On The Trinity Killers

After two weeks I'd like to check in on The Trinity Killers (my keeper league team). My "beware of small sample sizes mantra" still rings true this early in the season, but there are always observations to be made:

Kurt Suzuki - off to a very slow start but I love the fact that he DH's on his 'off days'. The fact that he will get more at bats than just about every other catcher is a huge advantage in itself as his counting stats will increase as a direct result. His batting average should pick up to the .270 range eventually and once again I have a solid $1 catcher.

Adrian Gonzalez - this guy really deserves to play for a real team in a real ballpark. Opposing pitchers never have to give him anything close to hittable because nobody else in that lineup scares them. But dude still rakes. I assume he will be traded by mid-season due to impending free agency. When he does his numbers should jump up a bit and he could finish with 45 homers and 115+ RBIs.

Brandon Phillips - sloooooooooow start but I'm not worried even a little. B-Phil has established himself as one of those guys who you just check his numbers at the end of the year and you have 20/20 second basemen. I put a premium on reliability and this is the poster child here.

Hanley Ramirez - another slow start here but not worried at all. Assuming full health we're looking at a guaranteed top five overall player, he just needs to get it going.

Marco Scutaro - doing what I expected. Chipping in here and there across the board but clearly won't win any one category for you. Currently getting bonus lead-off at-bats while Jacoby Ellsbury nurses a rib injury. Hitting atop Boston's lineup = lots 'o runs.

Troy Glaus - yet another slow starter for me, but he hit a BOMB at Petco on Wednesday and I am hoping that gets him going. Just stay healthy Troy. If he plays in 140+ games he will hit 25+ homers.

Joey Votto - cash money in cleats. I love watching this kid play. He is so young but has such incredible command of the strike zone. If only the 1-2 hitters in Cincy could get on base then Votto would be an RBI monster. Bonus: four stolen bases in the first two weeks. I always thought he could chip in around 7-10 based on his minor league track record but this pace is ridiculous. This is one case where after two weeks you can look at someone and say "he is going to have a special season".

Jayson Werth - hey, what do you know? Slow start and missed a few games with a minor hip injury. Only one homer and no steals yet after a 36/20 job in 2009. Two weeks down, twenty-four to go. Not. Worried.

Jason Kubel - this guy's just a professional hitter, I love his approach. He's looking much better vs. lefties, too.

Carlos Gonzalez - has missed half the season to date with a strained hammy. He is back though and jacked his first homer yesterday. Mega-upside remains, just need to see some steals.

Brad Hawpe - another one of my walking wounded - missed about four games with a quad injury. When he has played he's been much better than the $7 I paid for him. Quietly productive even when not hitting bombs. I'm enjoying the Brad Hawpe experience.

Rajai Davis - what you see is what you get. I drafted him to steal me a bag once every ten at bats. So far he's doubling that rate. Talk about an empty 50+ steal guy though, he really brings nothing else to the table. Hoping I can build a nice lead in steals over the next month or two and then flip Rajai for another need (which is looking like it is going to be power).

Chris Coghlan - peeeee yewwwww. Kid's been awful and injured. Great combo. With my pick up of the red hot Scott Podsednik I have Coghlan resting comfortably on my bench until he shows some signs of life. Optimistic he picks it back up. After all, I drafted him for a .300 10/10. He is close to that by default.

Scott Podsednik - spitting hot fire. Hitting .457 with seven steals overall. He swiped me 3 bags this week since I picked him up for $3 in our weekly FAAB run. One of my better players so far, I expect him to drop off considerably at any point so I am just milking this for as long as I can. Hopefully his drop-off will coincide with Coghlan's upcoming hot streak.

CC Sabathia - a notorious slow starter, has had a rough go at Fenway, then dominating starts vs the Rays and Rangers. That is probably the three best offenses in the AL (not counting the Yanks, obviously). If he tacks on a big time April/May to his usual dominant June-September, then we'll be looking at the AL Cy Young winner.

Dan Haren - looks a little rusty, which usually would not bother me at this point, except for the fact that Haren is famous for dominating first halves and poor, poor second halves. He is still striking guys out at a high rate, he is walking guys a little more than he is used to, but who cares. Danny Haren is going to be fine.

Yovani Gallardo - ugh. I am starting to worry that Gallardo just isn't what we all think he is, which is a budding Ace who just needs to overcome his control issues. He walks so many guys it is so frustrating. I still believe, but if anyone came at me with a decent trade offer I would be all ears.

Scott Baker - last year he started the year on the DL and then was awful for his first month back. After that he rocked a sub-4 ERA and was money, but nobody realized it because they were too busy looking at his composite stats. Well, everyone but me. With full health to start the year he has 2 big time outings and one poor one and looks great in the process. As long as he limits the walks I can deal with the occasional long ball.

James Shields - I think he peaked. Three years ago, that is. He is not the big strikeout guy he was in 2007 anymore. He looks more of a grind it out, 4+ERA guy. Great. But still, if my big dogs do their thing then there is a place for Jimmy Shields in my rotation.

Ted Lily - getting healthy, expected to be back with the big club this weekend. I will welcome him to the squad with open arms.

Billy Wagner - looks great but not getting many save opps. Those come in bunches so no worries there. Loving the K-rate.

Rafael Soriano - not looking as dominant as last year. In a related story he is pitching in the AL this year. Getting me the saves which is most important, just not striking fools out at even close to the same clip as last year.

Octavio Dotel - has given up at least one run in just about every one of his outings so far. Fortunately he is getting a bunch of multi-run cushions for his save opps. He is just making it interesting. Also had a blown save/win the other night - love those.

Matt Capps - note to Jim Riggleman: Matt Capps is not a five out closer. That is all.

So as you can see it has been an interesting first two weeks, but at the risk of repeating myself: it is only two weeks, beware of small sample sizes. In another two weeks I will check out the standings and start to assess strengths and weaknesses. Then I will monitor them more closely over the following four weeks. Come Memorial Day I believe the standings finally have some merit and I will be able to start making some trades. Until then, I am just sitting tight unless someone comes to me a deal too good to pass up.

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