Now that you know where the Trinity Killers are in the standings, lets go through the roster and see who is performing well and who is disappointing me:
Kurt Suzuki - minus a three week stint on the disabled list, this guy is doing exactly what I expected. .275 hitter with 7 homers and even chips in a few steals. Exhibit 569 why you punt catcher.
Adrien Gonzalez - a little streaky but at the end of the day he does the damn thang. On pace for 35+ homers and 100+ RBIs. With the Padres in first place it looks like he'll stay in SoCal for the remainder of the season, killing my dream of him playing in a real lineup and a real park.
Joey Votto - to think that I have him at $4 is laughable. This guy is a super duper stud playing in a great hitters park with a few good players surrounding him. lock for .300/30/100/10 and that's just his floor. His ceiling is scary. He'll probably be on my 'pay whatever it takes' list next year.
Carlos Pena - my buy low trade is already paying dividends. 5 homers in his last 4 games. Still hitting sub-.200 but that'll correct itself in time. This guy is gonna get to 40 bombs and 35 of them will be on my watch after he had a brutal April. Yay me.
Brandon Phillips - the draft room laughed a bit when I spent $28 to roster him. Look, I know he's not going to light the world on fire, but a bankable 20/20 second baseman is gold. Throw in the fact that he is on pace to hit around .300 and you can call him cash money in cleats. My only complaint is that he's batting 2nd instead of his traditional cleanup role, so his RBIs are wayyyy down. I was expecting 90ish, now he's on a 70ish pace.
Kelly Johnson - continues to do his thing as he hits .280 with 13 homers and 30+ RBI. Thank you Kelly. I have him at $4 for next year remember - that's big.
Hanley Ramirez - I don't even check in on him really. I just know he performs. Last I checked he was hitting below .300 but was on a 30/30 pace. Yes please.
Jayson Werth - slumping horribly as his average has dropped about 80 points in the last few weeks. Still on pace for 30+ homers and 100+ RBI though, and thats really why I hired him. Where are the steals though? Only 2 so far. Lets go Jay Jay.
Jason Kubel - showing signs of life. 8 homers and 35 RBIs as his average continues to recover from its 8 week slumber to start the season. I have full faith in this guy, big fan here.
Rajai Davis - if he's healthy he's good for at least one steal every 10 ab's. It is insane, I've never seen someone run like him. But...and you knew there was a but, he's a little banged up with a sore hammy. Get healthy Rajai I need you buddy.
Scott Podsednik - cooled down some after a hot start - I haven't been playing him lately because Rajai's been better and I don't need two speed aces in at the same time. Perfect backup/part time guy for me, it just hurts when I see him swipe some bags on my bench.
Brad Hawpe - puke. You would think a power guy in Coors would hit much better than he has. Patience though, hitters hit and he'll get his numbers one way or another.
Carlos Gonzalez - he is my homeboy. I regret not signing him long term, but that $20 contract scared me in the preseason. If I could extend him today, I'd probably go 4 years on that. He is money.
David Freese - called him up from my Minors squad but he barely plays for me. Good fill in, I like his approach. Just a solid little player who is a legit .300 guy hitting behind Albert and Holliday, so the RBI opps should be there.
CC Sabathia - traditional slow starter so I'm not worried, but I just can't watch his outings. He gives me anxiety. Another guy though who's numbers will just be there in the end, traditional July+ stud.
Dan Haren - I think I pissed off the pitching gods somewhere along the lines. Haren's about as automatic as it gets and yet he is single handedly killing my staff. I am praying this is the year he has a monster 2nd half, otherwise he will be my demise.
James Shields - having a monster bounceback season after 2 years in decline. The strikeouts are back and he's playing for the best offense in baseball. K's and wins? Yes please.
Ricky Nolasco - been awful for me since the trade. No other analysis really, not too worried yet.
Scott Baker - screw this guy. Not sure why I continue to start him. 5 earned in 5 innings vs KC last night. Thanks for nothing Scotty.
Octavio Dotel - been an under the radar great closer. Getting me strikeouts and a decent amount of saves for a terrible Pirates team. Everyone hates him. I like him, he can play for me any day.
Billy Wagner - this dude throws hot fire. Underrated top 5 closer.
Rafael Soriano - doing alright, getting the save opps as expected on this awesome Rays team. Where are the K's though? He had 102 last year. He is way, way off that pace.
I just picked up Max Scherzer for $11 (about 50% of my remaining budget) after his 14 strikeout game, then started him vs KC where he got rocked, and then benched him yesterday for a great outing vs Chicago. I don't see this ending well for me.
I've been spot starting Gio Gonzalez a bit and I gotta tell you, ,this kid can pitch. Big fan.
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Friday, June 11, 2010
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
One-Third Poll
Last week I updated you on the status of my keeper league team roughly one third through the season. Today we'll go through my other team aka the team that lost 19 points last week and went from 2nd to 7th place. I swear I'm not bitter. As an aside, there is not a more helpless feeling as you stare at your computer and just watch the points continue to slip away. I think I even cried at one point.
Aside number two - it wasn't the best week for my keeper team either, I went from being in first by a decent amount to 2nd and trailing by as many as 10 points at one point. But thanks to a six homer, 20 rbi night last night and a little slippage from the 1st place squad, I narrowed the lead back down to three. I have about a 10 point lead on the next cluster of the 3-4-5 teams, which is nice. Very optimistic here - but the crazy point swings goes to show you that it is still relatively early, there is a ton of baseball left, and anything can happen.
Now onto the bad news. First off: more injuries. Not only more injuries, but they are to my same two guys! Nelson Cruz went back on the disabled list with another hamstring injury (different leg) while Brett Anderson went back on with the same strained forearm. If I had just taken out fantasy insurance on these guys....
Anyway - Aramis Ramirez is a shell of his former self while he still bats under .200 and he is about to hit the DL also. Good times! With all that said I am still sitting at 95.5 points in 6th place. 1st place is still chillin' up there with 126.5 points (although he has been as high as 134, so hopefully he is on the downturn the whole league is hoping for) and 2nd place has 107. So I am still very much in the running for the money, if not championship because as I said above, there is still a whole lotta baseball to be played.
The good news about my team is twofold, I still love my roster as a whole and think it is just one hot streak away from taking off. I think for the most part my team has not played that well and is fortunate enough to be in the position it is currently in. Then, as you will see below, in about half of the categories I am in these clusters where all it will take is a good night or two to break away from the pack and gain bundles of points at a time. I just need to hang in and stay focused and pray that this hot streak comes sooner than later. Here is the category breakdown:
Well, first off, I should say that I have 68.5 offensive points - second most in the league - but only 27 pitching points - 4th worst in the league - so right away you can tell where I need to improve.
Batting Avg - 6th place/9 points. Respectable, but still room to grow. As a team we're hitting .275 while the leader of the pack is .279. That is certainly attainable so I believe I can easily gain anywhere from one to five points with some good hitting.
Homers - Tied for 5th/9.5 points. There is a crazy cluster here. First place has 88, i have 83, and the 8th place team has 80. Power is down across the league this year so this category can stay tight all season. With Nelson Cruz coming back next week and Aramis Ramirez rumored to be dusting off his corps after the all-star break, I expect a little power streak to come and could easily see myself getting to the top here, gaining up to another 4.5 points. Boom.
Runs - First/14 points. 30 run lead on the next guy. Comfortable for now but you never know. But if my offense only gets better, as I expect, then an increase in runs should coincide and ideally I never have to worry here.
RBI - 6th place/8 points. Hurting. This is one spot where 5 weeks of Nelson Cruz on the DL has really hurt me. Oh and 10 weeks of A-Ram sucking (have I mentioned that yet?). Even worse, I am nowhere near 5th place, currently 17 rbi's behind him and only 2 ahead of 7th place. So this is one category where I just need to shut my eyes and let nature take its course and hope that over the next few months I will steadily improve here. Again, the return of Ol' Nelly will only help as he is an rbi machine.
Steals - First/14 points. 6 steal lead on 2nd place. As I had hoped. You know I just like to draft guys who all chip in 20+ steals and the sum of the parts is usually pretty impressive. The only bad part is that it may come down to me needing to trade speed for power at some point and since all of my guys chip in, meaning I don't have a Juan Pierre-type speed ace, it may be more difficult to pull off a deal. We'll cross that bridge later though.
Total Bases + Walks - First/14 points. 24 base lead over 2nd place, which is nothing and could change in a day. This is one category that is near impossible to analyze. Happy I'm here but no guarantee I stay.
Now onto the gross part: pitching.
ERA: 8th place/7 points with a 3.8 mark. Eh. The deeper we get into the season the harder it is to improve ratios. Here's hoping.
Strikeouts: 8th place/7 points. Currently in a crazy cluster where I can gain or lose 6 points any given night depending on my pitchers' performance as well as my opponents'. Last week Cole Hamels and Bret Anderson combined for 2 2/3 innings pitched due to rain and injury. That screwed me out of at least ten much needed strikeouts. Bummer. Again, just need a little hot streak here and I can gain big time.
Saves: 8th place/7 points. 24 saves, middle of the pack. Who knows, these things come in bunches and I feel like I haven't had one in forever, so maybe I have a nice saves run on deck.
Wins: Tied for last/2 points. Yuk. Can't chase wins, just have to pray. On the bright side I'm 7 wins out of 2nd place, so hoping there's a run to made here too.
WHIP: 12th place/3 points. Climbed out of the cellar here with some decent outings lately. Can realistically gain one point here in the near term and then there are three teams in the next tier I have my sights on. Very optimistic, but if I have a chance at this I am going to need my pitching to get hot.
We will see. More to come.
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Aside number two - it wasn't the best week for my keeper team either, I went from being in first by a decent amount to 2nd and trailing by as many as 10 points at one point. But thanks to a six homer, 20 rbi night last night and a little slippage from the 1st place squad, I narrowed the lead back down to three. I have about a 10 point lead on the next cluster of the 3-4-5 teams, which is nice. Very optimistic here - but the crazy point swings goes to show you that it is still relatively early, there is a ton of baseball left, and anything can happen.
Now onto the bad news. First off: more injuries. Not only more injuries, but they are to my same two guys! Nelson Cruz went back on the disabled list with another hamstring injury (different leg) while Brett Anderson went back on with the same strained forearm. If I had just taken out fantasy insurance on these guys....
Anyway - Aramis Ramirez is a shell of his former self while he still bats under .200 and he is about to hit the DL also. Good times! With all that said I am still sitting at 95.5 points in 6th place. 1st place is still chillin' up there with 126.5 points (although he has been as high as 134, so hopefully he is on the downturn the whole league is hoping for) and 2nd place has 107. So I am still very much in the running for the money, if not championship because as I said above, there is still a whole lotta baseball to be played.
The good news about my team is twofold, I still love my roster as a whole and think it is just one hot streak away from taking off. I think for the most part my team has not played that well and is fortunate enough to be in the position it is currently in. Then, as you will see below, in about half of the categories I am in these clusters where all it will take is a good night or two to break away from the pack and gain bundles of points at a time. I just need to hang in and stay focused and pray that this hot streak comes sooner than later. Here is the category breakdown:
Well, first off, I should say that I have 68.5 offensive points - second most in the league - but only 27 pitching points - 4th worst in the league - so right away you can tell where I need to improve.
Batting Avg - 6th place/9 points. Respectable, but still room to grow. As a team we're hitting .275 while the leader of the pack is .279. That is certainly attainable so I believe I can easily gain anywhere from one to five points with some good hitting.
Homers - Tied for 5th/9.5 points. There is a crazy cluster here. First place has 88, i have 83, and the 8th place team has 80. Power is down across the league this year so this category can stay tight all season. With Nelson Cruz coming back next week and Aramis Ramirez rumored to be dusting off his corps after the all-star break, I expect a little power streak to come and could easily see myself getting to the top here, gaining up to another 4.5 points. Boom.
Runs - First/14 points. 30 run lead on the next guy. Comfortable for now but you never know. But if my offense only gets better, as I expect, then an increase in runs should coincide and ideally I never have to worry here.
RBI - 6th place/8 points. Hurting. This is one spot where 5 weeks of Nelson Cruz on the DL has really hurt me. Oh and 10 weeks of A-Ram sucking (have I mentioned that yet?). Even worse, I am nowhere near 5th place, currently 17 rbi's behind him and only 2 ahead of 7th place. So this is one category where I just need to shut my eyes and let nature take its course and hope that over the next few months I will steadily improve here. Again, the return of Ol' Nelly will only help as he is an rbi machine.
Steals - First/14 points. 6 steal lead on 2nd place. As I had hoped. You know I just like to draft guys who all chip in 20+ steals and the sum of the parts is usually pretty impressive. The only bad part is that it may come down to me needing to trade speed for power at some point and since all of my guys chip in, meaning I don't have a Juan Pierre-type speed ace, it may be more difficult to pull off a deal. We'll cross that bridge later though.
Total Bases + Walks - First/14 points. 24 base lead over 2nd place, which is nothing and could change in a day. This is one category that is near impossible to analyze. Happy I'm here but no guarantee I stay.
Now onto the gross part: pitching.
ERA: 8th place/7 points with a 3.8 mark. Eh. The deeper we get into the season the harder it is to improve ratios. Here's hoping.
Strikeouts: 8th place/7 points. Currently in a crazy cluster where I can gain or lose 6 points any given night depending on my pitchers' performance as well as my opponents'. Last week Cole Hamels and Bret Anderson combined for 2 2/3 innings pitched due to rain and injury. That screwed me out of at least ten much needed strikeouts. Bummer. Again, just need a little hot streak here and I can gain big time.
Saves: 8th place/7 points. 24 saves, middle of the pack. Who knows, these things come in bunches and I feel like I haven't had one in forever, so maybe I have a nice saves run on deck.
Wins: Tied for last/2 points. Yuk. Can't chase wins, just have to pray. On the bright side I'm 7 wins out of 2nd place, so hoping there's a run to made here too.
WHIP: 12th place/3 points. Climbed out of the cellar here with some decent outings lately. Can realistically gain one point here in the near term and then there are three teams in the next tier I have my sights on. Very optimistic, but if I have a chance at this I am going to need my pitching to get hot.
We will see. More to come.
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Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Memorial Day Status Check - Trinity
Since we're officially one third into the season, aka about the time that I start to take the standings seriously, I figured it would be a good time to check in on the standings and give you all a little status check. Let's go through my keeper team first and then we'll do Cool HWIP in another post.
So do you want the good news or the good news? Yup, I'm pwning this league right now. The Trinity Killers stand in first place with 104 total points, evenly distributed with 52 offensive and 52 pitching points. Second place has 102 and we've been flip flopping a bit, but the good news is that we've separated ourselves from the pack a bit in the last few weeks and I have no problem being one of the horses in a two horse race for four months. Don't get me wrong, I am not claiming victory or runner up quite yet, I just like the way the standings are starting to stratify. The next three teams all stand between 93 and 85 points. Then, the rest of the league finds their seasons all but over ranging from 68 points all the way down to 34. Being that this is a keeper league, the eight teams from the bottom up have already started trading their expensive, expiring stud contracts for cheap talent for next year and beyond. Sometimes it sucks because on the surface some trades will look so unfair, but what is the last place team supposed to do with an expiring Roy Halladay? Of course he needs to trade him for good contracts. Fortunately we have a salary cap in place which helps these deals stay relatively in check.
Ok, let's go category by category and break it down:
Batting Average: currently hitting .272, good for 5th place and 9 points. I'm very happy here considering I have some guys who just aren't hitting (yes, you Carlos Pena). I think there's room for upside here as there's room to improve and 2-3 points to gain if some guys start hitting.
Home Runs: currently in third place with 82 homers, good for 11 points. The problem is I'm 7 homers behind 2nd place but only 4 homers ahead of 7th place, meaning one little cold spell could lose me 4 quick points. But, I think my power guys are struggling a bit and once Pena and Adrien Gonzalez get hot I can make a run for the top of this category.
Runs: 5th place/9 points which is the reason you don't look at the standings for at least 8 weeks into your season. About a month in I was in the bottom third here with no hope in sight. Now look at me. I'm 11 runs behind the next guy and in a little cluster of guys where again a cold spell could lose me some quick points, but being the optimist I am I think I'll continue heading north.
RBI: 4th place/10 points, 2 RBI behind 3rd place and then the top 2 are far ahead, but I'm happy where I am for now and again, when the Pena/Gonzalez types turn it on I could make a little push here.
Steals: 1st place/13 points with 66 swipes, 4 ahead of 2nd place. Rajai Davis has been huge lately as he leads the league in steals. I also have gotten a bunch out of Scott Podsednik, those two are my anchors with guys like Hanley, Brandon Phillips, and Carlos Gonzalez all chipping in a bag here and there.
ERA: Only in 9th place/5 points with a 3.90 ERA, and that's after 18 innings of one run ball by my staff last night. This is frustrating because the ERA does not match up with my other pitching numbers as you'll see, so I have every reason to think I'll get better here.
Strikeouts: 1st place/13 points. Sitting with a 25 strikeout lead and I see no reason this wouldn't continue. I have a nice stable of strikeout arms and just picked up Max Scherzer to further help me here. Hoping to be able to trade from surplus here when a need arises.
Saves: 1st place/13 points with 49 saves, 5 ahead of the next guy. My 4 closer strategy was gold to open the season and get me out to a nice lead, then I was able to flip the dime a dozen Matt Capps for a $4 Kelly Johnson signed through next year. With Wagner, Dotel, and Soriano all heating up I like my odds, barring health of course, to take this category down without sweating too much.
Wins: 3rd place/11 points but only one win outta first place. Wins are so unpredictable but I have some good arms on great teams (CC/Shields/Baker) so I think I can take first here or at the very least stay on pace.
WHIP: 4th place/10 points with a 1.26 WHIP. Happy with my standing here as I have a horrible WHIP history in this league. Anything top 5 will be welcomed with open arms.
So there you have it - I'm looking good with some upside to grow, but its still early enough that there is some downside present with the smallest of cold streaks. Lets hope that doesn't happen and I can take the crown in this league, finally.
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So do you want the good news or the good news? Yup, I'm pwning this league right now. The Trinity Killers stand in first place with 104 total points, evenly distributed with 52 offensive and 52 pitching points. Second place has 102 and we've been flip flopping a bit, but the good news is that we've separated ourselves from the pack a bit in the last few weeks and I have no problem being one of the horses in a two horse race for four months. Don't get me wrong, I am not claiming victory or runner up quite yet, I just like the way the standings are starting to stratify. The next three teams all stand between 93 and 85 points. Then, the rest of the league finds their seasons all but over ranging from 68 points all the way down to 34. Being that this is a keeper league, the eight teams from the bottom up have already started trading their expensive, expiring stud contracts for cheap talent for next year and beyond. Sometimes it sucks because on the surface some trades will look so unfair, but what is the last place team supposed to do with an expiring Roy Halladay? Of course he needs to trade him for good contracts. Fortunately we have a salary cap in place which helps these deals stay relatively in check.
Ok, let's go category by category and break it down:
Batting Average: currently hitting .272, good for 5th place and 9 points. I'm very happy here considering I have some guys who just aren't hitting (yes, you Carlos Pena). I think there's room for upside here as there's room to improve and 2-3 points to gain if some guys start hitting.
Home Runs: currently in third place with 82 homers, good for 11 points. The problem is I'm 7 homers behind 2nd place but only 4 homers ahead of 7th place, meaning one little cold spell could lose me 4 quick points. But, I think my power guys are struggling a bit and once Pena and Adrien Gonzalez get hot I can make a run for the top of this category.
Runs: 5th place/9 points which is the reason you don't look at the standings for at least 8 weeks into your season. About a month in I was in the bottom third here with no hope in sight. Now look at me. I'm 11 runs behind the next guy and in a little cluster of guys where again a cold spell could lose me some quick points, but being the optimist I am I think I'll continue heading north.
RBI: 4th place/10 points, 2 RBI behind 3rd place and then the top 2 are far ahead, but I'm happy where I am for now and again, when the Pena/Gonzalez types turn it on I could make a little push here.
Steals: 1st place/13 points with 66 swipes, 4 ahead of 2nd place. Rajai Davis has been huge lately as he leads the league in steals. I also have gotten a bunch out of Scott Podsednik, those two are my anchors with guys like Hanley, Brandon Phillips, and Carlos Gonzalez all chipping in a bag here and there.
ERA: Only in 9th place/5 points with a 3.90 ERA, and that's after 18 innings of one run ball by my staff last night. This is frustrating because the ERA does not match up with my other pitching numbers as you'll see, so I have every reason to think I'll get better here.
Strikeouts: 1st place/13 points. Sitting with a 25 strikeout lead and I see no reason this wouldn't continue. I have a nice stable of strikeout arms and just picked up Max Scherzer to further help me here. Hoping to be able to trade from surplus here when a need arises.
Saves: 1st place/13 points with 49 saves, 5 ahead of the next guy. My 4 closer strategy was gold to open the season and get me out to a nice lead, then I was able to flip the dime a dozen Matt Capps for a $4 Kelly Johnson signed through next year. With Wagner, Dotel, and Soriano all heating up I like my odds, barring health of course, to take this category down without sweating too much.
Wins: 3rd place/11 points but only one win outta first place. Wins are so unpredictable but I have some good arms on great teams (CC/Shields/Baker) so I think I can take first here or at the very least stay on pace.
WHIP: 4th place/10 points with a 1.26 WHIP. Happy with my standing here as I have a horrible WHIP history in this league. Anything top 5 will be welcomed with open arms.
So there you have it - I'm looking good with some upside to grow, but its still early enough that there is some downside present with the smallest of cold streaks. Lets hope that doesn't happen and I can take the crown in this league, finally.
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